Hillary’s Enthusiasm Gap

By Chris Weigant


Deep into the political silly season, it seems the pundits are getting rather tired of being so very, very wrong in predicting the imminent demise of Donald Trump’s candidacy, so instead they all seem to have turned to a new summertime storyline: predicting the imminent demise of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. This is what passes for conventional wisdom inside the Beltway in the dog days of August, but it’s likely going to turn out to be just as wrong as the endless refrains of “surely this will sink Trump!” which preceded it. For anyone so disconnected from reality to understand what I’m saying here, a handy reminder that we have over fourteen months before the 2016 election. Even the first primaries are still a half a year away. And anything can happen in that amount of time in politics.

Hillary’s campaign, to read the headlines, is in such a sorry state that it’s a wonder she hasn’t just hung up her hat and gone home. If you just woke up from a coma and read only the past week’s headlines, you’d be wondering when Clinton will be scheduling her concession speech, as she prepares to exit the race. That this is patent nonsense seems to have escaped everyone.

The pundit world is gleefully ignoring a few facts, since they are inconvenient to the “Hillary is toast!” talking point. Let’s begin with her poll ratings, which continue to dominate the race. Hillary Clinton, right now, commands support from more voters — of either party — than anyone else in the race, by far. Donald Trump is making big news because he has hit a plateau (or perhaps ceiling?) of roughly 25 percent of Republican primary voters. The other Republicans in the race are fighting over the crumbs left behind — Trump routinely posts polling numbers twice as high as his nearest competitor, and whenever any Republican candidate breaks 10 percent in polling it makes the news. Only a handful have managed to do so in the entire race, so far. Trump’s the only one to break 20 percent in even a single recent poll, in fact. And Clinton regularly charts twice the support from Democrats that Trump gets from Republicans. Heck, even Bernie Sanders has more Democratic support than Trump manages from the Republicans. The Democrats’ second-place candidate is doing better than the Republican frontrunner, to put this another way.

Hillary’s actually doing better in the early polling than just about any recent candidate at this stage in a presidential race (with the obvious exception of a sitting president running unopposed for re-election). She has been maintaining this incredibly high level of support for the entire campaign, in fact. She is still far and away the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She has had a recent minor slump in polling, but in real numbers this means “her first poll below 50 percent of Democratic voters’ support.” Any other candidate in the race (of either party) would be overjoyed to have 49 percent at this …read more

Source: More Fitness

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